The Ministry of Economy predicted a strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate from the forecasted UAH 29.1 / $ to UAH 28-27 / $ in 2021. But it has immediately indicated that it would cost the economy 0.2-0.5% of GDP: this is stated in the explanatory note to the draft resolution with a revised macroeconomic forecast for the next three years.
According to the document, at an average annual rate of UAH 27 / $, real GDP growth, compared to the baseline scenario in 2021, will decrease by 0.5%, and at an exchange rate of UAH 28 / $ 1 - by 0.2%.
“With an average annual exchange rate of UAH 28 / $, real GDP growth will decrease by 0.2%, while the volume of imports of goods and services will increase in real terms by 0.24%, while exports of goods and services will decrease by 0.21%, final household expenditure - by 0.02% and the gross accumulation of fixed capital - by 0.03%,” the document says.
The government's calculations have long been purely theoretical, since its forecast indicators for the hryvnia exchange rate has always been disconnected from reality, both in 2019 and in 2020. For example, this year the exchange rate reached UAH 24.5 / $, for a long time it was kept at UAH 26.0-26.5 / $, and now it is at UAH 27.7-27.75 / $. However, the state budget establishes UAH 29.5-30 / $.
In general, the economic situation in Ukraine poses serious concerns.
“Unfortunately, I do not see any prospects for the domestic economy now. Prime Minister Denis Shmygal flies to Brussels to negotiate a financial assistance program for our country and promises that a law on the localization of production will not be adopted. This is the law that allows you to buy for budgetary funds only those goods that are 30% or more of Ukrainian components and products / raw materials. Why? Because this law contradicts the obligations that Ukraine has taken before the European Union. It turns out that for our money (budgetary funds) you need to support not a Ukrainian manufacturer that creates jobs and pays taxes here, but a foreign one. We do not need to develop our industry, no. We need to support the foreign one,” MP Aleksandr Dubinskyi says.
He is convinced that such an approach kills the production potential of Ukraine and prevents the country from developing.
“The government only needs to drain more taxes from the general public, destroy our industry so that only agriculture can develop in the country. And in the long term - to become a resource base for other countries, providing them with labor. It is high time everyone became a work-migrant, "Dubinskyi says.
Andrey Pshenichnyi for dubinsky.pro